Utility of Facebook's Social Connectedness Index in Modeling COVID-19 Spread: Exponential Random Graph Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 (the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus) pandemic has underscored the need for additional data, tools, and methods that can be used to combat emerging and existing public health concerns. Since March 2020, there has been substantial interest in using social media data to both understand and intervene in the pandemic. Researchers from many disciplines have recently found a relationship between COVID-19 and a new data set from Facebook called the Social Connectedness Index (SCI). OBJECTIVE: Building off this work, we seek to use the SCI to examine how social similarity of Missouri counties could explain similarities of COVID-19 cases over time. Additionally, we aim to add to the body of literature on the utility of the SCI by using a novel modeling technique. METHODS: In September 2020, we conducted this cross-sectional study using publicly available data to test the association between the SCI and COVID-19 spread in Missouri using exponential random graph models, which model relational data, and the outcome variable must be binary, representing the presence or absence of a relationship. In our model, this was the presence or absence of a highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectory between two given counties in Missouri. Covariates included each county's total population, percent rurality, and distance between each county pair. RESULTS: We found that all covariates were significantly associated with two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories. As the log of a county's total population increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories increased by 66% (odds ratio [OR] 1.66, 95% CI 1.43-1.92). As the percent of a county classified as rural increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories increased by 1% (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.01). As the distance (in miles) between two counties increased, the odds of two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories decreased by 43% (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.43-0.77). Lastly, as the log of the SCI between two Missouri counties increased, the odds of those two counties having highly correlated COVID-19 case count trajectories significantly increased by 17% (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.09-1.26). CONCLUSIONS: These results could suggest that two counties with a greater likelihood of sharing Facebook friendships means residents of those counties have a higher likelihood of sharing similar belief systems, in particular as they relate to COVID-19 and public health practices. Another possibility is that the SCI is picking up travel or movement data among county residents. This suggests the SCI is capturing a unique phenomenon relevant to COVID-19 and that it may be worth adding to other COVID-19 models. Additional research is needed to better understand what the SCI is capturing practically and what it means for public health policies and prevention practices.

Enabling Hotspot Detection and Public Health Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic.

INTRODUCTION: Public-facing maps of COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and deaths are commonly displayed at the state, county, and zip code levels, and low case counts are suppressed to protect confidentiality. Public health authorities are tasked with case identification, contact tracing, and canvasing for educational purposes during a pandemic. Given limited resources, authorities would benefit from the ability to tailor their efforts to a particular neighborhood or congregate living facility. METHODS: We describe the methods of building a real-time visualization of patients with COVID-19-positive tests, which facilitates timely public health response to the pandemic. We developed an interactive street-level visualization that shows new cases developing over time and resolving after 14 days of infection. Our source data included patient demographics (ie, age, race and ethnicity, and sex), street address of residence, respiratory test results, and date of test. RESULTS: We used colored dots to represent infections. The resulting animation shows where new cases developed in the region and how patterns changed over the course of the pandemic. Users can enlarge specific areas of the map and see street-level detail on residential location of each case and can select from demographic overlays and contour mapping options to see high-level patterns and associations with demographics and chronic disease prevalence as they emerge. CONCLUSIONS: Before the development of this tool, local public health departments in our region did not have a means to map cases of disease to the street level and gain real-time insights into the underlying population where hotspots had developed. For privacy reasons, this tool is password-protected and not available to the public. We expect this tool to prove useful to public health departments as they navigate not only COVID-19 pandemic outcomes but also other public health threats, including chronic diseases and communicable disease outbreaks.

Estimating the effects of race and social vulnerability on hospital admission and mortality from COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the risk of hospital admission and mortality from COVID-19 to patients and measure the association of race and area-level social vulnerability with those outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using patient records collected at a multisite hospital system from April 2020 to October 2020, the risk of hospital admission and the risk of mortality were estimated for patients who tested positive for COVID-19 and were admitted to the hospital for COVID-19, respectively, using generalized estimating equations while controlling for patient race, patient area-level social vulnerability, and time course of the pandemic. RESULTS: Black individuals were 3.57 as likely (95% CI, 3.18-4.00) to be hospitalized than White people, and patients living in the most disadvantaged areas were 2.61 times as likely (95% CI, 2.26-3.02) to be hospitalized than those living in the least disadvantaged areas. While Black patients had lower raw mortality than White patients, mortality was similar after controlling for comorbidities and social vulnerability. DISCUSSION: Our findings point to potent correlates of race and socioeconomic status, including resource distribution, employment, and shared living spaces, that may be associated with inequitable burden of disease across patients of different races. CONCLUSIONS: Public health and policy interventions should address these social factors when responding to the next pandemic.